Adev\u0103ratul num\u0103r de\u00a0infec\u021bii cu COVID-19\u00a0este probabil mult mai mare dec\u00eet ceea ce se raporteaz\u0103 \u00een multe \u021b\u0103ri cu venituri mari din \u00eentreaga lume. O estimare nou\u0103 care trateaz\u0103 situa\u021bia din Statele Unite, Australia, Canada, Coreea de Sud \u0219i 11 \u021b\u0103ri din Europa sugereaz\u0103 c\u0103 cifrele oficiale nu surprind adev\u0103rata amploare a r\u0103sp\u00eendirii pandemiei.<\/p>\n
Noul model al oamenilor de \u0219tiin\u021b\u0103 din Australia folose\u0219te o metod\u0103 \u201ebackcasting\u201d, care proiecteaz\u0103 num\u0103rul de noi decese zilnice \u00een sens invers, de la momentul mor\u021bii p\u00een\u0103 la momentul infec\u021biei. Acest lucru permite savan\u021bilor s\u0103 evite utilizarea datelor epidemiologice \u0219i serologice, care vin cu limit\u0103rile test\u0103rii.<\/p>\n
Compar\u00eend noile estim\u0103ri cu cazurile oficiale confirmate, echipa a<\/p>\n
reu\u0219it s\u0103 prezic\u0103 rata de infec\u021bie \u201eadev\u0103rat\u0103\u201d pentru fiecare \u021bar\u0103. Rezultatele acestora arat\u0103 c\u0103 la sf\u00eer\u0219itul lunii august, rata infec\u021biei popula\u021biei a fost, \u00een medie, de \u0219ase ori mai mare dec\u00eet cazurile raportate.<\/p>\n
\u201eSpre deosebire de infec\u021biile raportate pe baza testelor de ARN, metoda noastr\u0103 nu depinde de acoperirea sau eficacitatea regimurilor de testare, care pot fi foarte diferite \u00eentre jurisdic\u021bii \u0219i \u00een timp\u201d, scriu autorii.<\/p>\n
Asta \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 este mult mai u\u0219or de utilizat la nivel regional, na\u021bional sau chiar interna\u021bional dec\u00eet alte metode. Mai mult, deoarece nu se bazeaz\u0103 pe o \u021bar\u0103 care aplic\u0103 teste pe scar\u0103 larg\u0103, poate ajuta exper\u021bii \u00een s\u0103n\u0103tate public\u0103 s\u0103 se preg\u0103teasc\u0103 \u00een zone cu capacitate limitat\u0103 de testare.<\/p>\n
\u201ePur \u0219i simplu, am analizat statistici cu privire la num\u0103rul de oameni care au murit din cauza COVID-19 \u00eentr-o anumit\u0103 \u021bar\u0103 \u0219i apoi am analizat \u00een sens invers pentru a vedea c\u00eete persoane ar fi trebuit s\u0103 fie infectate pentru a ajunge la acel num\u0103r de decese\u201d, spune cercet\u0103torul Steven Phipps de la Ikigai Research \u00een Australia.<\/p>\n
\u00cen general, din martie, \u021b\u0103rile din \u00eentreaga lume \u0219i-au \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u021bit capacit\u0103\u021bile de testare COVID-19, educ\u00eend publicul cu privire la simptome \u0219i oferind modalit\u0103\u021bi din ce \u00een ce mai precise de detectare \u0219i urm\u0103rire a infec\u021biei. \u00cen ciuda acestor \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u021biri, num\u0103rul interna\u021bional de infect\u0103ri raportate continu\u0103 s\u0103 r\u0103m\u00een\u0103 \u00een urma realit\u0103\u021bii probabile. Chiar \u0219i \u00een Australia, care are unul dintre cele mai bune niveluri de detectare dintre toate cele 15 \u021b\u0103ri studiate, cercet\u0103torii spun c\u0103 rata infec\u021biei ar putea fi \u00een continuare de aproape cinci ori mai mare dec\u00eet cele raportate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Adev\u0103ratul num\u0103r de\u00a0infec\u021bii cu COVID-19\u00a0este probabil mult mai mare dec\u00eet ceea ce se raporteaz\u0103 \u00een…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"featured_image_urls":{"full":"","thumbnail":"","medium":"","medium_large":"","large":"","1536x1536":"","2048x2048":"","covernews-slider-full":"","covernews-slider-center":"","covernews-featured":"","covernews-medium":"","covernews-medium-square":""},"author_info":{"display_name":"SAPTAMANA.md","author_link":"https:\/\/saptamana.md\/index.php\/author\/saptamana-md\/"},"category_info":"Coronavirus<\/a>","tag_info":"Coronavirus","comment_count":"0","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/saptamana.md\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1489"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/saptamana.md\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/saptamana.md\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/saptamana.md\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/saptamana.md\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1489"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/saptamana.md\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1489\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/saptamana.md\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1489"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/saptamana.md\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1489"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/saptamana.md\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1489"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}